Wednesday, September 16, 2009
[IWS] OECD: SOUTH AFRICAS TRADE AND GROWTH [7 September 2009]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Working Party of the Trade Committee
OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 91
SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE AND GROWTH [7 September 2009]
by Przemyslaw Kowalski, Ralph Lattimore and Novella Bottini
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2008doc.nsf/ENGDATCORPLOOK/NT0000B0B2/$FILE/JT03269123.PDF
[full-text, 82 pages]
ABSTRACT
This paper examines key trade and trade related issues facing South Africa. It describes South
Africa's re-entry into the global trade architecture and its economic growth in the context of its trade
performance, as well as the composition and performance of South African exports at the product and
sector level in the period from the early 1990s to 2006. The study also assesses South Africa's comparative
trade performance based on a gravity model of international trade and discusses some key historical and
recent trade policy developments. Finally, the study provides an econometric assessment of the impact of
South Africa's trade liberalisation during the period from 1988 to 2003 on labour and total factor
productivity across its industrial sectors. It shows that while South African trade performance has been
good in recent years there is significant room to liberalise further as an adjunct to labour market reforms.
Further trade policy liberalisation would bring about important equity and efficiency gains. Multilateral
trade liberalisation has the potential to maximise the gains and ease the transition to freer trade for South
Africa but unilateral liberalisation also deserves consideration.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE AND GROWTH ............................................................................................. 4
Executive summary and conclusions .............................................................................................................. 4
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 9
2. South Africa's economic growth .......................................................................................................... 12
2.1 GDP growth 1994-2002 and 2003-2007 ................................................................................... 12
2.2 General trends in trade performance, current account performance ......................................... 17
3. South Africa's Exports: Structure and Performance ............................................................................. 21
3.1 Composition and Destinations of Trade in Goods .................................................................... 21
3.2 A Dynamic Analysis of Past Export Goods Performance ........................................................ 29
3.3 Composition and Destinations of Trade in Services ................................................................. 32
4. South Africa's comparative trade performancea gravity model analysis .......................................... 35
4.1 South Africa's comparative trade performance ........................................................................ 36
5. Trade policy & developments ............................................................................................................... 40
5.1 Overview of trade policy developments ................................................................................... 40
5.2 Merchandise trade liberalisation of the 1990s and current policy stance ................................. 42
5.3 South Africa's preferential trade agreements ............................................................................ 47
5.4 Services trade ............................................................................................................................ 50
6. Did trade liberalisation affect productivity growth in South Africa's manufacturing? ........................ 54
6.1 Openness and productivity growth debate ................................................................................ 54
6.2 Openness and productivity growth in South Africa .................................................................. 55
6.3 Methodology and results ........................................................................................................... 59
BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................................ 62
GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS ANNEX .................................................................................................. 64
FIGURES AND TABLES ANNEX ............................................................................................................. 66
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
Working Party of the Trade Committee
OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 91
SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE AND GROWTH [7 September 2009]
by Przemyslaw Kowalski, Ralph Lattimore and Novella Bottini
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2008doc.nsf/ENGDATCORPLOOK/NT0000B0B2/$FILE/JT03269123.PDF
[full-text, 82 pages]
ABSTRACT
This paper examines key trade and trade related issues facing South Africa. It describes South
Africa's re-entry into the global trade architecture and its economic growth in the context of its trade
performance, as well as the composition and performance of South African exports at the product and
sector level in the period from the early 1990s to 2006. The study also assesses South Africa's comparative
trade performance based on a gravity model of international trade and discusses some key historical and
recent trade policy developments. Finally, the study provides an econometric assessment of the impact of
South Africa's trade liberalisation during the period from 1988 to 2003 on labour and total factor
productivity across its industrial sectors. It shows that while South African trade performance has been
good in recent years there is significant room to liberalise further as an adjunct to labour market reforms.
Further trade policy liberalisation would bring about important equity and efficiency gains. Multilateral
trade liberalisation has the potential to maximise the gains and ease the transition to freer trade for South
Africa but unilateral liberalisation also deserves consideration.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SOUTH AFRICA'S TRADE AND GROWTH ............................................................................................. 4
Executive summary and conclusions .............................................................................................................. 4
1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 9
2. South Africa's economic growth .......................................................................................................... 12
2.1 GDP growth 1994-2002 and 2003-2007 ................................................................................... 12
2.2 General trends in trade performance, current account performance ......................................... 17
3. South Africa's Exports: Structure and Performance ............................................................................. 21
3.1 Composition and Destinations of Trade in Goods .................................................................... 21
3.2 A Dynamic Analysis of Past Export Goods Performance ........................................................ 29
3.3 Composition and Destinations of Trade in Services ................................................................. 32
4. South Africa's comparative trade performancea gravity model analysis .......................................... 35
4.1 South Africa's comparative trade performance ........................................................................ 36
5. Trade policy & developments ............................................................................................................... 40
5.1 Overview of trade policy developments ................................................................................... 40
5.2 Merchandise trade liberalisation of the 1990s and current policy stance ................................. 42
5.3 South Africa's preferential trade agreements ............................................................................ 47
5.4 Services trade ............................................................................................................................ 50
6. Did trade liberalisation affect productivity growth in South Africa's manufacturing? ........................ 54
6.1 Openness and productivity growth debate ................................................................................ 54
6.2 Openness and productivity growth in South Africa .................................................................. 55
6.3 Methodology and results ........................................................................................................... 59
BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................................................ 62
GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS ANNEX .................................................................................................. 64
FIGURES AND TABLES ANNEX ............................................................................................................. 66
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 10:44 AM
