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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Congressional Research Service (CRS)

 

Southwest Border Violence: Issues in Identifying and Measuring Spillover Violence

Kristin M. Finklea, Coordinator, Analyst in Domestic Security

Jennifer E. Lake, Section Research Manager

Celinda Franco, Specialist in Crime Policy

Chad C. Haddal, Specialist in Immigration Policy

William J. Krouse, Specialist in Domestic Security and Crime Policy

Mark A. Randol, Specialist in Domestic Intelligence and Counter-Terrorism

August 24, 2010

http://opencrs.com/document/R41075/2010-08-24/download/1013/

[full-text, 46 pages]

 

Summary

There has been a recent increase in the level of drug trafficking-related violence within and

between the drug trafficking organizations in Mexico. This violence has generated concern

among U.S. policy makers that the violence in Mexico might spill over into the United States.

Currently, U.S. federal officials deny that the recent increase in drug trafficking-related violence

in Mexico has resulted in a spillover into the United States, but they acknowledge that the

prospect is a serious concern.

 

The most recent threat assessment indicates that the Mexican drug trafficking organizations pose

the greatest drug trafficking threat to the United States, and this threat is driven partly by U.S.

demand for drugs. Mexican drug trafficking organizations are the major suppliers and key

producers of most illegal drugs smuggled into the United States across the Southwest border

(SWB). The nature of the conflict between the Mexican drug trafficking organizations in Mexico

has manifested itself, in part, as a struggle for control of these smuggling routes into the United

States. Further, in an illegal marketplace—such as that of illicit drugs—where prices and profits

are elevated due to the risks of operating outside the law, violence or the threat of violence

becomes the primary means for settling disputes.

 

When assessing the potential implications of the increased violence in Mexico, one of the central

concerns for Congress is the potential for what has been termed “spillover” violence—an increase

in drug trafficking-related violence in United States. While the interagency community has

defined spillover violence as violence targeted primarily at civilians and government entities—

excluding trafficker-on-trafficker violence—other experts and scholars have recognized

trafficker-on-trafficker violence as central to spillover. When defining and analyzing changes in

drug trafficking-related violence within the United States to determine whether there has been (or

may be in the future) any spillover violence, critical elements include who may be implicated in

the violence (both perpetrators and victims), what type of violence may arise, when violence may

appear, and where violence may occur (both along the SWB and in the nation’s interior).

 

Currently, no comprehensive, publicly available data exist that can definitively answer the

question of whether there has been a significant spillover of drug trafficking-related violence into

the United States. Although anecdotal reports have been mixed, U.S. government officials

maintain that there has not yet been a significant spillover. In an examination of data that could

provide insight into whether there has been a significant spillover in drug trafficking-related

violence from Mexico into the United States, CRS analyzed violent crime data from the Federal

Bureau of Investigation’s Uniform Crime Report program. The data, however, do not allow

analysts to determine what proportion of the violent crime rate is related to drug trafficking or,

even more specifically, what proportion of drug trafficking-related violent crimes can be

attributed to spillover violence. In conclusion, because the trends in the overall violent crime rate

may not be indicative of trends in drug trafficking-related violent crimes, CRS is unable to draw

definitive claims about trends in drug trafficking-related violence spilling over from Mexico into

the United States.

 

This report will be updated as circumstances warrant.

 

Contents

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................1

The Southwest Border Region and the Illicit Drug Trade Between the United States and

Mexico ...................................................................................................................................2

Demand for Drugs in the United States..................................................................................3

Supply of Illegal Drugs from Mexico ....................................................................................4

Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations...............................................................................5

Partnerships in the United States .....................................................................................9

Activities ......................................................................................................................10

Relationship Between Illicit Drug Markets and Violence ........................................................... 11

What Is Spillover Violence? ......................................................................................................12

Characteristics of Spillover Violence...................................................................................13

Who May Be Implicated in Violence.............................................................................13

What Type of Violence May Arise.................................................................................15

When Violence May Appear..........................................................................................15

Where Violence May Occur ..........................................................................................16

Challenges in Evaluating and Responding to Spillover Violence................................................17

Complexity of the Issue.......................................................................................................17

Defining Goals and Objectives ............................................................................................18

Measuring the Problem .......................................................................................................19

Is There Spillover Violence? ...............................................................................................19

Analysis.......................................................................................................................19

Conclusion...............................................................................................................................24

Figures

Figure 1. Drug Routes Within Mexico and at the United States-Mexico Border ...........................7

Figure 2. U.S. Cities Reporting the Presence of Mexican Drug Trafficking Organizations............8

Figure 3. Violent Crime Rate in Selected MSAs ........................................................................22

Figure 4. Violent Crime Rate in Selected Southwest Border MSAs............................................23

Figure A-1. OCDETF Cases Referred to the USAOs, by Federal Agency ..................................40

Figure A-2. OCDETF Case Filings and Convictions ..................................................................41

Tables

Table 1. U.S. Illegal Drug Seizures Along the Southwest Border .................................................5

Appendixes

Appendix. Selected U.S. Efforts and Issues ...............................................................................26

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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
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