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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Congressional Research Service (CRS)

 

 

Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States: Estimates Since 1986

Ruth Ellen Wasem, Specialist in Immigration Policy

September 22, 2011

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/174245.pdf

[full-text, 17 pages]

 

Summary

Estimates derived from the March Supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population

Survey (CPS) indicate that the unauthorized resident alien population (commonly referred to as

illegal aliens) rose from 3.2 million in 1986 to 11.2 million in 2010. Jeffrey Passel, a

demographer with the Pew Hispanic Research Center, has been involved in making these

estimations since he worked at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1980s. The estimated number

of unauthorized aliens had dropped to 1.9 million in 1988 following passage of a 1986 law that

legalized several million unauthorized aliens. The estimates of unauthorized aliens peaked at an

estimated 12.4 million in 2007. About 39% of unauthorized alien residents in 2010 were

estimated to have entered the United States in 2000 or later.

 

Similarly, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS) reported

an estimated 10.8 million unauthorized alien residents as of January 2010, up from 8.5 million in

January 2000. The OIS estimated that 6.6 million of the unauthorized alien residents were from

Mexico, an estimate comparable to Passel and D’Vera Cohn’s calculation of 6.5 million. The OIS

based its estimates on data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. The

OIS estimated that the unauthorized resident alien population in the United States increased by

37% over the period 2000 to 2008, then leveled off in 2009 and 2010.

 

Research suggests that various factors have contributed to the ebb and flow of unauthorized

resident aliens, and that the increase is often attributed to the “push-pull” of prosperity-fueled job

opportunities in the United States in contrast to limited or nonexistent job opportunities in the

sending countries. Accordingly, the economic recession that began in December 2007 may have

curbed the migration of unauthorized aliens, particularly because sectors that traditionally rely on

unauthorized aliens, such as construction, services, and hospitality, have been especially hard hit.

Some researchers also suggest that the increased size of the unauthorized resident population

during the late 1990s and early 2000s is an inadvertent consequence of border enforcement and

immigration control policies. They posit that strengthened border security has curbed the fluid

movement of seasonal workers. This interpretation, generally referred to as a caging effect, argues

that these policies have raised the stakes in crossing the border illegally and created an incentive

for those who succeed in entering the United States to stay.

 

The current system of legal immigration is cited as another factor contributing to unauthorized

alien residents. The statutory ceilings that limit the type and number of immigrant visas issued

each year create long waits for visas. According to this interpretation, many foreign nationals who

would prefer to come to the United States legally resort to illegal avenues in frustration over the

delays. It is difficult, however, to demonstrate a causal link or to guarantee that increased levels

of legal migration would absorb the current flow of unauthorized migrants. Furthermore, some

researchers speculate that the doubling in deportations since 2001 might also have had a chilling

effect on family members weighing unauthorized residence in recent years.

 

Some observers point to more elusive factors when assessing the ebb and flow of unauthorized

resident aliens—such as shifts in immigration enforcement priorities away from illegal entry to

removing suspected terrorists and criminal aliens, or discussions of possible “amnesty”

legislation. This report does not track legislation and will be updated as needed.

 

Contents

Background...................................................................................................................................... 1

Estimates Since 1986....................................................................................................................... 2

Analysis from the March Current Population Survey...................................................................... 5

Analysis from the American Community Survey............................................................................ 8

Analysis of the Monthly Current Population Survey..................................................................... 12

Contributing Factors ...................................................................................................................... 12

 

Figures

Figure 1. Estimated Number of Unauthorized Resident Aliens, 1986-2010.................................... 3

Figure 2. Unauthorized Resident Alien Population, by Place of Origin, 1986 and 2010 ................ 5

Figure 3. Unauthorized Resident Aliens in 2010, by Reported Year of Arrival............................... 6

Figure 4. Unauthorized Resident Alien Population, by State .......................................................... 7

Figure 5. Top 10 States with Unauthorized Resident Aliens ........................................................... 9

Figure 6. Top 10 Source Countries of Unauthorized Resident Aliens ........................................... 10

Figure 7. Age Distribution of Unauthorized Resident Aliens in 2010, by Gender ........................ 11

 

Contacts

Author Contact Information........................................................................................................... 14

Acknowledgments .........................................................................................................................14

 

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This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.

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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
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