Friday, January 21, 2005
[IWS] NIC: Mapping the GLOBAL FUTURE [13 January 2005]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC)
NIC 2004-13
December 2004
MAPPING the GLOBAL FUTURE [13 January 2005]
Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project
Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental Experts Around the World
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html
or
http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf
[full-text, 120 pages]
Contents
Executive Summary 9
Methodology 19
Introduction 25
The Contradictions of Globalization 27
An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy 29
The Technology Revolution 34
Lingering Social Inequalities 37
Fictional Scenario: Davos World 40
Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape 47
Rising Asia 48
Other Rising States? 51
The AgingPowers 56
Growing Demands for Energy 59
US Unipolarity How Long Can It Last? 63
Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana 64
New Challenges to Governance 73
Halting Progress on Democratization 73
Identity Politics 79
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate 83
Pervasive Insecurity 93
Transmuting International Terrorism 93
Intensifying Internal Conflicts 97
Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict? 98
The WMD Factor 100
Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear 104
Policy Implications 111
Graphics and Tables
Chinas and Indias Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US 31
When Chinas and Indias GDPs Would Exceed Todays Rich Countries 32
Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020 48
Chinas Rise 50
Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 20032025 51
Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020 59
An Expanding European Union 60
Number of Religious Adherents, 19002025 80
Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992 82
EU: Estimated and Projected Ratios of Muslims to Ethnic Europeans, 1985-2025 83
Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003 101
Special Topics
The 2020 Global Landscape 8
Mapping the Global Future 26
What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like? 28
What Could Derail Globalization? 30
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon 36
The Status of Women in 2020 38
Risks to Chinese Economic Growth 52
India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects 53
Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change? 55
Global Aging and Migration 58
Could Europe Become A Superpower? 61
The Geopolitics of Gas 62
Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways? 74
Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020 76
Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split? 78
Organized Crime 96
Cyber Warfare? 97
How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward? 99
International Institutions in Crisis 102
The Rules of War: Entering No Mans Land103
Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge 104
Is the United StatesTechnological Prowess at Risk? 112
How the World Sees the United States114
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky *
Director, IWS News Bureau *
Institute for Workplace Studies *
Cornell/ILR School *
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor *
New York, NY 10016 *
*
Telephone: (607) 255-2703 *
Fax: (607) 255-9641 *
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu *
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies
School of Industrial & Labor Relations
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor
New York, NY 10016
________________________________________________________________________
U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC)
NIC 2004-13
December 2004
MAPPING the GLOBAL FUTURE [13 January 2005]
Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project
Based on Consultations With Nongovernmental Experts Around the World
http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html
or
http://www.foia.cia.gov/2020/2020.pdf
[full-text, 120 pages]
Contents
Executive Summary 9
Methodology 19
Introduction 25
The Contradictions of Globalization 27
An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy 29
The Technology Revolution 34
Lingering Social Inequalities 37
Fictional Scenario: Davos World 40
Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape 47
Rising Asia 48
Other Rising States? 51
The AgingPowers 56
Growing Demands for Energy 59
US Unipolarity How Long Can It Last? 63
Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana 64
New Challenges to Governance 73
Halting Progress on Democratization 73
Identity Politics 79
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate 83
Pervasive Insecurity 93
Transmuting International Terrorism 93
Intensifying Internal Conflicts 97
Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict? 98
The WMD Factor 100
Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear 104
Policy Implications 111
Graphics and Tables
Chinas and Indias Per Capita GDPs Rising Against US 31
When Chinas and Indias GDPs Would Exceed Todays Rich Countries 32
Telescoping the Population of the World to 2020 48
Chinas Rise 50
Projected Rise in Defense Spending, 20032025 51
Fossil Fuels Will Continue to Dominate in 2020 59
An Expanding European Union 60
Number of Religious Adherents, 19002025 80
Key Areas of Radical Islamic Activities Since 1992 82
EU: Estimated and Projected Ratios of Muslims to Ethnic Europeans, 1985-2025 83
Global Trends in Internal Conflict, 1990-2003 101
Special Topics
The 2020 Global Landscape 8
Mapping the Global Future 26
What Would an Asian Face on Globalization Look Like? 28
What Could Derail Globalization? 30
Biotechnology: Panacea and Weapon 36
The Status of Women in 2020 38
Risks to Chinese Economic Growth 52
India vs. China: Long-Term Prospects 53
Asia: The Cockpit for Global Change? 55
Global Aging and Migration 58
Could Europe Become A Superpower? 61
The Geopolitics of Gas 62
Eurasian Countries: Going Their Separate Ways? 74
Climate Change and Its Implications Through 2020 76
Latin America in 2020: Will Globalization Cause the Region to Split? 78
Organized Crime 96
Cyber Warfare? 97
How Can Sub-Saharan Africa Move Forward? 99
International Institutions in Crisis 102
The Rules of War: Entering No Mans Land103
Post-Combat Environments Pose the Biggest Challenge 104
Is the United StatesTechnological Prowess at Risk? 112
How the World Sees the United States114
_____________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 1:28 PM
