Monday, January 14, 2008

[IWS] UK to OVERTAKE U.S. in GDP PER CAPITA in 2008? [7 January 2008]

IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations
-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor
---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016
-------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________


Note: Two points of view below ---

Oxford Economics

UK GDP per capita to overtake US in 2008 for first time since the 19th century [7 January 2008]
http://www.oef.com/Free/pdfs/oxfordeconomicspressreleasejan08.pdf

.. Living standards in the UK as measured by GDP per capita are set to rise above those in the
US in 2008 for the first time since the 19th century. According to Oxford Economics, UK GDP
will reach $48,000 per head of the population (£23,500 per capita) in 2008, compared with
$47,430 per capita (£23,250 per capita) in the US.
.. Moreover, UK GDP per capita will be over 8% higher than in both Germany
($44,200/£21,665 per capita) and France ($44,300/£21,700 per capita) in 2008.

.. Commenting on the figures, Oxford Economics' Managing Director, Adrian Cooper, said:
"The last 15 years have seen a dramatic change in the UK's economic performance and its
position in the world economy. No longer are we the 'sick man of Europe'. Indeed, our
calculations suggest that UK living standards are now a match with those of the US."

.. The improvement in UK relative living standards has been substantial since the early 1990s.
In 1993, following the last major recession and the UK's ejection from the ERM, GDP per
capita in the UK was 34% lower than in the US, 33% lower than in Germany and 26% lower
than in France.

.. The increase in the UK's relative GDP per capita in large part reflects the long period of
sustained strong growth that the UK has enjoyed since 1993. More recently, it also reflects
the strength of sterling, first vis-à-vis the European currencies and, in the last couple of
years, versus the US dollar. However, as the chart below shows, the UK has been catching
up steadily with living standards in the US since 2001 ­ so, it is a well-established trend
rather than simply the result of currency fluctuations.

AND MORE including CHART & TABLES....

ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE --
Center for Economic and Policy Research

Misunderestimating' Living Standards
January 2008, John Schmitt and David Rosnick
http://www.cepr.net/content/view/1419/8/

This issue brief finds that a forecast by Oxford Economics suggesting that the United Kingdom's living standards will exceed those of the U.S. in 2008 is misleading. CEPR found that the forecast relies on a basic misunderstanding of standard methods of comparing international standards of living. Using the appropriate economic method, in 2008, the GDP per capita of the United States will exceed that of the United Kingdom by almost 19 percent.

For full-report -- see
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/living_standards_2008_01.pdf  


[Thanks to Shirl Kennedy at Docuticker.com for the tip].


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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
Telephone: (607) 255-2703                
Fax: (607) 255-9641                       
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