Monday, April 28, 2008
[IWS] Work Foundation (UK): MIGRATION MYTHS: EMPLOYMENT, WAGES & LABOUR MARKET PERFORMANCE [24 April 2008]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Work Foundation (UK)
Migration Myths: Employment, Wages and Labour Market Performance
David Coats, Associate Director Policy
http://workfoundation.org/Assets/PDFs/migration2.pdf
[full-text, 88 pages]
See Press Release 24 April 2008
Immigration: vital for the UK's economic success
http://workfoundation.org/aboutus/media/pressreleases/immigrationvitalfortheukseconomicsuccess.aspx
[excerpts]
Immigration is now the most hotly contested political issue in the UK, outstripping
unemployment or public service quality as a cause of public concern. There can be no denying
that people are worried, although the economic reasons for rising public anxiety are not easy to
identify. After all, the last decade has witnessed an expansion of employment, significant falls
in unemployment and rising national prosperity. Most people are better off than they were ten
years ago, employment insecurity has fallen and job satisfaction remains high.
...
This paper is therefore written from the perspective that the recent high levels of inward
migration have, on balance, been a significant advantage for the UK economy. There is little
evidence to show that recent migrants have displaced UK nationals or that there has been
significant downward pressure on wages (partly because the national minimum wage has
been rising rapidly). The counterfactual to consider is what might have happened in either
the complete absence of migration or migration at a much lower level; if, for example, the
government had prevented workers coming to the UK from the eight new EU member states
in Central and Eastern Europe (hereafter A8 countries) since their accession in 2004. We can
hypothesise that the labour market would have been considerably tighter, especially at the
bottom end. Employers would have had to offer higher wages to attract scarce labour and
it is reasonable to assume that this would have had a ripple effect further up the earnings
distribution as more affluent workers restored their differentials.
Contents
1. Introduction 4
2. Some economic theory and international evidence 9
3. Labour market realities and migration flows 17
4. Who are the A8 migrants and where are they working? 31
5. The impact of migration on employment 47
6. The impact of migration on wages and the macro-economy 57
7. Economic trends in Central and Eastern Europe: the impact on migration 67
8. Who are the losers? 72
9. Evaluation and conclusion 80
Bibliography 85
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Product Market Regulation 2006 5
Figure 2: Restrictiveness of Employment Protection Legislation 16
Figure 3: Employment rate 1997- 2007 20
Figure 4: People in employment (millions) 1997- 2007 20
Figure 5: The changing structure of the UK population 1971-2006 22
Figure 6: Population, selected age groups 1981-2006 22
Figure 7: Total international migration 1996-2006 25
Figure 8: A8 and New Commonwealth migration 2004-2006 26
Figure 9: A8 National Insurance registrations and Worker's Registration Scheme 2002-2007 27
Figure 10: WRS registrations by country of origin 2004-2007 28
Figure 11: A8 migrants by nationality and year of arrival in the UK (employees) 29
Figure 12: Nationality of A8 migrants 2004-2007 31
Figure 13: Composition of A8 migrants by age 2004-2007 33
Figure 14: Intended length of stay A8 migrants June 2006-June 2007 34
Figure 15: Where did migrants go in 2006? (English regions) 34
Figure 16: NINos issued to A8 migrants by region 2004-2007 35
Figure 17: Geographical distribution of employers of registered workers 36
Figure 18: Top five sectors geographical distribution of employers cumulative total 36
Figure 19: Top ten sectors distribution of employers2004-2007 39
Figure 20: Top five sectors, distribution of employees 39
Figure 21: Employment rates by nationality, 2007 (per cent of working age migrants in UK) 44
Figure 22: Unemployment (per cent) 1992-2007 48
Figure 23: Change in unemployment by region January 2007-January 2008 49
Figure 24: NEET Historical Series 50
Figure 25: NMW trajectory, prices and earnings 1999-2007 57
Figure 26: Percentage change in median earnings growth 2001-2007 59
Figure 27: Percentage change in earnings 2001-2007 tenth percentile, hotels, construction 60
Figure 28: Unemployed (per cent) 2001-2006 68
Figure 29: GDP per capita $US 68
Figure 30: GDP growth (percentage change) 2001-2007 69
Figure 31: Percentage of people living in a workless household 74
Figure 32: Economic activity and workless households 74
Figure 33: The geographical distribution of worklessness 76
Table 1: Unemployment, GDP per head and the propensity to migrate 32
Table 2: Top 20 Occupations in 2006, A8 Migrants 40
Table 3: Occupations of A8 Migrants 2007 41
Table 4: A8 Migrants and Benefits May 2004-June 2007 43
Table 5: Breakdown of households by working and poverty status (millions) 73
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Work Foundation (UK)
Migration Myths: Employment, Wages and Labour Market Performance
David Coats, Associate Director Policy
http://workfoundation.org/Assets/PDFs/migration2.pdf
[full-text, 88 pages]
See Press Release 24 April 2008
Immigration: vital for the UK's economic success
http://workfoundation.org/aboutus/media/pressreleases/immigrationvitalfortheukseconomicsuccess.aspx
[excerpts]
Immigration is now the most hotly contested political issue in the UK, outstripping
unemployment or public service quality as a cause of public concern. There can be no denying
that people are worried, although the economic reasons for rising public anxiety are not easy to
identify. After all, the last decade has witnessed an expansion of employment, significant falls
in unemployment and rising national prosperity. Most people are better off than they were ten
years ago, employment insecurity has fallen and job satisfaction remains high.
...
This paper is therefore written from the perspective that the recent high levels of inward
migration have, on balance, been a significant advantage for the UK economy. There is little
evidence to show that recent migrants have displaced UK nationals or that there has been
significant downward pressure on wages (partly because the national minimum wage has
been rising rapidly). The counterfactual to consider is what might have happened in either
the complete absence of migration or migration at a much lower level; if, for example, the
government had prevented workers coming to the UK from the eight new EU member states
in Central and Eastern Europe (hereafter A8 countries) since their accession in 2004. We can
hypothesise that the labour market would have been considerably tighter, especially at the
bottom end. Employers would have had to offer higher wages to attract scarce labour and
it is reasonable to assume that this would have had a ripple effect further up the earnings
distribution as more affluent workers restored their differentials.
Contents
1. Introduction 4
2. Some economic theory and international evidence 9
3. Labour market realities and migration flows 17
4. Who are the A8 migrants and where are they working? 31
5. The impact of migration on employment 47
6. The impact of migration on wages and the macro-economy 57
7. Economic trends in Central and Eastern Europe: the impact on migration 67
8. Who are the losers? 72
9. Evaluation and conclusion 80
Bibliography 85
List of Figures and Tables
Figure 1: Product Market Regulation 2006 5
Figure 2: Restrictiveness of Employment Protection Legislation 16
Figure 3: Employment rate 1997- 2007 20
Figure 4: People in employment (millions) 1997- 2007 20
Figure 5: The changing structure of the UK population 1971-2006 22
Figure 6: Population, selected age groups 1981-2006 22
Figure 7: Total international migration 1996-2006 25
Figure 8: A8 and New Commonwealth migration 2004-2006 26
Figure 9: A8 National Insurance registrations and Worker's Registration Scheme 2002-2007 27
Figure 10: WRS registrations by country of origin 2004-2007 28
Figure 11: A8 migrants by nationality and year of arrival in the UK (employees) 29
Figure 12: Nationality of A8 migrants 2004-2007 31
Figure 13: Composition of A8 migrants by age 2004-2007 33
Figure 14: Intended length of stay A8 migrants June 2006-June 2007 34
Figure 15: Where did migrants go in 2006? (English regions) 34
Figure 16: NINos issued to A8 migrants by region 2004-2007 35
Figure 17: Geographical distribution of employers of registered workers 36
Figure 18: Top five sectors geographical distribution of employers cumulative total 36
Figure 19: Top ten sectors distribution of employers2004-2007 39
Figure 20: Top five sectors, distribution of employees 39
Figure 21: Employment rates by nationality, 2007 (per cent of working age migrants in UK) 44
Figure 22: Unemployment (per cent) 1992-2007 48
Figure 23: Change in unemployment by region January 2007-January 2008 49
Figure 24: NEET Historical Series 50
Figure 25: NMW trajectory, prices and earnings 1999-2007 57
Figure 26: Percentage change in median earnings growth 2001-2007 59
Figure 27: Percentage change in earnings 2001-2007 tenth percentile, hotels, construction 60
Figure 28: Unemployed (per cent) 2001-2006 68
Figure 29: GDP per capita $US 68
Figure 30: GDP growth (percentage change) 2001-2007 69
Figure 31: Percentage of people living in a workless household 74
Figure 32: Economic activity and workless households 74
Figure 33: The geographical distribution of worklessness 76
Table 1: Unemployment, GDP per head and the propensity to migrate 32
Table 2: Top 20 Occupations in 2006, A8 Migrants 40
Table 3: Occupations of A8 Migrants 2007 41
Table 4: A8 Migrants and Benefits May 2004-June 2007 43
Table 5: Breakdown of households by working and poverty status (millions) 73
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 12:34 PM
