Thursday, February 26, 2009
[IWS] Conference Board: EURO AREA (Leading Economic Indicators) [26 February 2009]
IWS Documented News Service
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Conference Board
Press Release
Global Business Cycle Indicators
Euro Area [26 February 2009]
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=10
or
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/nobother.pdf
[full-text, 3 pages]
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.5 percent in January to 92.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.7 percent fall in December and a 1.8 percent drop in November. The widening interest rate spread and increasing business expectations in services more than offset a negative contribution from the Economic Sentiment Index.
Download a PDF of < http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/toolate.pdf > the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.
Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table in
French
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringOne.pdf >
German
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringTwo.pdf>
Spanish
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringThree.pdf >
"If sustained, the 0.5 percent rise in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area in January may signal an inflection point in the recession, but still not a turning point," said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe. "The expansionary policy mix currently in place may favor a rebound during the second half of 2009, but history suggests that the combination of traditional recessions and financial crises often lead to subdued recoveries."
Despite the increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area remains on a general downtrend since June 2007, falling by more than 14.0 percent since then. A previous decline of this magnitude preceded the region's 1992-93 recession. Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, rose by 0.2 percent in January to 104.5 (2004 = 100), according to preliminary estimates, after falling 0.4 percent in December and 0.3 percent in November. The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has been trending downward since February 2008.
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area: Still No Trough in Sight
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area aggregates eight economic indicators that measure activity in the Euro Area as a whole (rather than indicators of individual member countries), each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
_______________________________
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
________________________________________________________________________
Conference Board
Press Release
Global Business Cycle Indicators
Euro Area [26 February 2009]
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/pressRelease_output.cfm?cid=10
or
http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/nobother.pdf
[full-text, 3 pages]
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the Euro Area increased 0.5 percent in January to 92.8 (2004 = 100), following a 1.7 percent fall in December and a 1.8 percent drop in November. The widening interest rate spread and increasing business expectations in services more than offset a negative contribution from the Economic Sentiment Index.
Download a PDF of < http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/economics/bci/toolate.pdf > the technical notes for underlying detail, diffusion indexes, components, contributions and graphs.
Download a PDF of the press release with graph and summary table in
French
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringOne.pdf >
German
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringTwo.pdf>
Spanish
< http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/translations/ringThree.pdf >
"If sustained, the 0.5 percent rise in The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area in January may signal an inflection point in the recession, but still not a turning point," said Jean-Claude Manini, The Conference Board Senior Economist for Europe. "The expansionary policy mix currently in place may favor a rebound during the second half of 2009, but history suggests that the combination of traditional recessions and financial crises often lead to subdued recoveries."
Despite the increase in January, The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area remains on a general downtrend since June 2007, falling by more than 14.0 percent since then. A previous decline of this magnitude preceded the region's 1992-93 recession. Meanwhile, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the Euro Area, a measure of current economic activity, rose by 0.2 percent in January to 104.5 (2004 = 100), according to preliminary estimates, after falling 0.4 percent in December and 0.3 percent in November. The Conference Board CEI for the Euro Area has been trending downward since February 2008.
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area: Still No Trough in Sight
The Conference Board LEI for the Euro Area aggregates eight economic indicators that measure activity in the Euro Area as a whole (rather than indicators of individual member countries), each of which has proven accurate on its own. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly.
______________________________
This information is provided to subscribers, friends, faculty, students and alumni of the School of Industrial & Labor Relations (ILR). It is a service of the Institute for Workplace Studies (IWS) in New York City. Stuart Basefsky is responsible for the selection of the contents which is intended to keep researchers, companies, workers, and governments aware of the latest information related to ILR disciplines as it becomes available for the purposes of research, understanding and debate. The content does not reflect the opinions or positions of Cornell University, the School of Industrial & Labor Relations, or that of Mr. Basefsky and should not be construed as such. The service is unique in that it provides the original source documentation, via links, behind the news and research of the day. Use of the information provided is unrestricted. However, it is requested that users acknowledge that the information was found via the IWS Documented News Service.
Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
****************************************
# posted by SBasefsky : 6:04 AM
