Wednesday, March 31, 2010
[IWS] World Bank: China Quarterly Update, March 2010 [17 March 2010]
IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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World Bank
China Quarterly Update, March 2010 [17 March 2010]
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/CHINAEXTN/Resources/318949-1268688634523/CQU_march2010.pdf
[full-text, 17 pages]
[excerpt]
OVERVIEW
In spite of the global recession, China's economy grew 8.7 percent in 2009. Massive investment‐led
stimulus was key, but real estate investment gained prominence more recently and household
consumption growth has held up very well. The domestic growth momentum continued in the first
months of 2010. Exports declined in 2009 as a whole, even as China gained global market share. With
imports strong, external trade was a major drag on growth in 2009 and the external current account
surplus declined sharply. Exports rebounded strongly through 2009, though, and exceeded the pre‐crisis
level in early 2010. In a heated real estate market, surging property prices triggered policy measures to
expand supply and curb speculation.
We project 9.5 percent GDP growth for this year, with a shift in the composition. Government‐led
investment is bound to decelerate. But, exports are likely to continue to recover amidst a pick up in the
global economy and real estate activity is likely to grow strongly this year. Consumption growth should
remain solid. Inflation is on course to be significant in 2010, after being negative in 2009. But, with
global price pressures likely to be subdued amidst large spare capacity internationally, China's inflation
is unlikely to reach high rates in 2010. We expect the external surplus to remain broadly unchanged this
year.
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Stuart Basefsky
Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor
New York, NY 10016
Telephone: (607) 255-2703
Fax: (607) 255-9641
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu
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