Thursday, October 14, 2010
[IWS] ADB: Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects [September 2010]
IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Asian Development Bank (ADB)
ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 220
Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects
Jong-Wha Lee and Kiseok Hong
September 2010
http://www.adb.org/documents/working-papers/2010/economics-wp220.pdf
[full-text, 38 pages]
Abstract
Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly
over the past 3 decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation.
The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region’s past
economic growth remain relatively limited. Our baseline projections based on the
model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP)
growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will
be consistently lower for the next 2 decades than their historical performance.
However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and
development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset
the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. By expanding
at robust rates, developing Asia will account for close to two thirds of the world
economy in 2030, almost doubling the current 34% share of the region in 2009.
Contents
Abstract v
I. Introduction 1
II. Sources of Growth, 1981–2007 4
III. Determinants of Growth 10
IV. Estimation Results 14
V. Growth Projections, 2011–2030 17
A. Baseline Projections 17
B. Reform Scenario 20
VI. Comparison and Discussion of GDP Projections 24
VII. Conclusion 28
References 29
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Director, IWS News Bureau
Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell/ILR School
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New York, NY 10016
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