Thursday, October 14, 2010

[IWS] ADB: Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects [September 2010]

IWS Documented News Service
Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor----------------------
Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau


Asian Development Bank (ADB)

ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 220

Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects

Jong-Wha Lee and Kiseok Hong

September 2010

[full-text, 38 pages]



Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly

over the past 3 decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation.

The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region’s past

economic growth remain relatively limited. Our baseline projections based on the

model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP)

growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will

be consistently lower for the next 2 decades than their historical performance.

However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and

development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset

the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. By expanding

at robust rates, developing Asia will account for close to two thirds of the world

economy in 2030, almost doubling the current 34% share of the region in 2009.



Abstract v

I. Introduction 1

II. Sources of Growth, 1981–2007 4

III. Determinants of Growth 10

IV. Estimation Results 14

V. Growth Projections, 2011–2030 17

A. Baseline Projections 17

B. Reform Scenario 20

VI. Comparison and Discussion of GDP Projections 24

VII. Conclusion 28

References 29


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