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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Asian Development Bank (ADB)

ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 218

Past and Future of the Labor Force in Emerging Asian Economies

Jinyoung Kim

September 2010

http://www.adb.org/documents/working-papers/2010/economics-wp218.pdf

[full-text, 27 pages]

 

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of past changes in the labor force of

12 emerging Asian countries, and attempts to make projections of the labor force

in those countries for the period 2010–2030. Results from the regression analysis

indicate that the labor force has grown faster than the population, has an inverted

U-shape relationship with per capita gross domestic product, and is smaller in

more capital-intensive countries. Using extrapolation, the paper predicts that the

labor force will increase in all 12 economies during the first 2 decades of the

period 2010–2030, but will eventually decline in the People’s Republic of China;

Hong Kong, China; the Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China. The

paper also makes projections of the unemployment rate and the average working

hours in those economies.

 

Contents

Abstract v

I. Introduction 1

II. Data Sources 2

III. Regression Analysis 3

IV. Projection Method for the Labor Force Participation Rate 5

V. Projection Method for the Unemployment Rate 9

VI. Projection Method for Average Working Hours 10

VII. Description of Variables in the Data 11

Appendix 1: Labor Force Projections 12

Appendix 2: Unemployment Rate Projections 14

Appendix 3: Average Working Hours Projections 16

References 18

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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
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