IWS Documented News INTERNATIONAL

IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

Background Paper

CBO's Labor Force Projections Through 2021 [22 March 2011]

http://www.cbo.gov/doc.cfm?index=12052

or

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12052/03-22-LaborForceProjections.pdf

[full-text, 34 pages]

Abstract

In producing regular reports on the state of the U.S. economy and 10-year and longer-term projections of the nation's budget and economic outlook, CBO examines many developments that could have short- or longer-term consequences for the budget and the economy. In coming decades, one such development is expected to be a slower rate of growth of the labor force relative to its average over the past few decades. That slowdown is anticipated to occur primarily because of the aging and retirement of large numbers of baby boomers and because women's participation in the labor force has leveled off since the late 1990s after having risen substantially for the preceding three decades. This background paper describes CBO's methods for projecting such trends through 2021, updating CBO's Projections of the Labor Force, a CBO Background Paper published in September 2004.

Contents

Summary and Introduction 1

Population Projections 4

Use of SSA and Census Bureau Estimates 4

Net Immigration 5

Labor Force Projections 8

Effects of Demographics 10

Effects of Public Policies 11

Effects of Business Cycles 13

Comparison with Other Projections 15

Appendix: Projecting Labor Force Participation Within Demographic Groups 19

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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
Telephone: (607) 255-2703                
Fax: (607) 255-9641                       
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu                  
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