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IWS Documented News Service
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Institute for Workplace Studies----------------- Professor Samuel B. Bacharach
School of Industrial & Labor Relations-------- Director, Institute for Workplace Studies
Cornell University
16 East 34th Street, 4th floor---------------------- Stuart Basefsky
New York, NY 10016 -------------------------------Director, IWS News Bureau
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Asian Development Bank (ADB)

Long-term projections of Asian GDP and trade—November 2011

http://beta.adb.org/sites/default/files/projections-gdp-trade.pdf

[full-text, 34 pages]

Contents

Acknowledgments iv

Executive Summary v

Abbreviations vi

I.          Introduction . 1

II.        Summaries and Key Findings 3

A.        Summaries 3

1.         Human Capital Accumulation in Emerging Asia, 1970–2030 3

2.         Past and Future of the Labor Force in Emerging Asian Economies 4

3.         Economic Growth in Asia: Determinants and Prospects . 4

4.         Projection of Long-Term Total Factor Productivity Growth for 12 Asian Economies . 4

5.         The Determinants and Long-Term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia 5

6.         Physical Capital Accumulation in Asia-12: Past Trends and Future Projections 6

7.         Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Prospects . 6

B.        Key Findings: Gross Domestic Product and Trade Projections, 2011–2030 7

1.         Gross Domestic Product 7.

2.         International Trade Flows . 10

III.       Selected Issues . 12

A.        Demographic Dividends and the Role of the Labor Force in Asia's Growth 12

B.        Reforms for Efficiency-Driven Growth . 15

C.        Developing Asia's Saving and Investment

Gap 17.

D.        Income Convergence in Developing Asia . 20

1.         β Convergence 20

2.         σ Convergence 21

References 23

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Stuart Basefsky                   
Director, IWS News Bureau                
Institute for Workplace Studies 
Cornell/ILR School                        
16 E. 34th Street, 4th Floor             
New York, NY 10016                        
                                   
Telephone: (607) 262-6041               
Fax: (607) 255-9641                       
E-mail: smb6@cornell.edu                  
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